时间：2019年 7月19日 下午14:00
As an essential resource for human society, water has become increasingly “virtual” (i.e., embedded in traded products) due to international and interregional trade. An extensive literature has shown that virtual water trade has enhanced water use efficiency on the global scale, but little attention has been paid to the other side of the coin: water-related risks to the trade system. Indeed, trade has exacerbated water scarcity in some already water-stressed regions due to the underlying difficulties in water management, and climate change will only complicate the situation. To evaluate water scarcity risk to the global trade system, we develop a framework integrating risk analysis, input-output economics, and complex network analysis, using data on regional renewable water supply, sectoral water consumption, and multi-regional input-output trade structure. “Hotspot” nation-sectors, where water scarcity may cause major loss to the global trade system, are identified. Also, risks to national economic systems from foreign (physical) water scarcity are revealed and decomposed according to origins. Such analyses help decision makers such as water managers understand the broader socioeconomic impacts of water scarcity in an increasingly globalized world and may serve as a foundation for government negotiation and economic choices in relation to water scarcity risk.
曲申博士是密歇根大学环境与资源学院（School for Environment and Sustainability of University of Michigan）的博士后研究员，主要研究方向是贸易与环境的关系、城市代谢和产业生态学。2009年毕业于清华大学物理系，2015年于美国乔治城大学（Georgetown University）获得经济学博士，并开始在密歇根大学担任陶氏博士后研究员（Dow Postdoctoral Research Fellow）。目前以第一/通讯作者在Environmental Science & Technology，Global Environmental Change等SCI杂志发表论文十余篇，并担任Journal of Cleaner Production，Resources, Conservation & Recycling等杂志的编委会成员。